Monitoring the fortunes of the white working class

Posted by   35KjGig34E   |   Categories :   Politics

In 1922 Donald Trump’s Fred, dad, left high school to benefit a carpenter. He was a bright man” who could add five columns of numbers in his head”. Building came to him, also. By 1971 he’d amassed a multi-million-dollar fortune. Working class success stories like Fred’s are becoming rarer, and uncommon in America. The president would like to see more of them. !

At his inauguration he declared that America’s “forgotten girls and men ” will be forgotten. And he’s vowed to bring jobs back to states that have been damage so by globalisation. By America’s lost folks, he means above all white working class guys: three quarters of white men who voted in November and left school did so the greatest share of any demographic group.

White men are additionally Mr Trump dedicated assistants. While his approval ratings languish at 49% nationally, among working class white men they’re at 69%, in accordance with a pollster, YouGov. This group forms a large hunk of the labour force: non-Hispanic white men aged 25 to 65 using a high-school diploma or less make up 23% of man workers.!

Mr Trump has little of his dad’s preciseness with figures. A year ago he reckoned the unemployment rate—rather than hovering around 5% as the official data showed—was “probably 28, 29, as high as 35” or even, possibly, “42%”. To help clarify things, The Economist has established a group of labour market indexes to monitor the improvement of America’s forgotten men. Our index of white working class men (WWCM) uses three measures of occupation performance.

The unemployment rate, first. This counts the amount of jobless individuals who have actively sought work as a portion of the total labour force, before four weeks. By the end of 2016 the rate stood at 4.7%, but among WWCM it was 6.4%: a difference of 30% (see graph 1). Between 2001 and 1994 the typical difference in unemployment rates between WWCM and all guys was just 15%. Because the start of Truly Amazing Recession that typical difference has swelled to 24%.

Second, as the unemployment rate doesn’t count individuals who have given up looking for work, some claim that it underestimates the real extent of joblessness. Therefore the next index is labour force participation, which counts workers, employed or not, as a share of the working age people. Today this has dropped from 87% in 1948 to 69%. For WWCM it’s dropped to 59% (a proportionate difference of 15%, compared with a mean of 10% between 1994 and 2001).

Eventually, within the previous 27 years, average hourly wages have grown by 2.9% a year before correcting for inflation. Meanwhile the hourly earnings of WWCM (sectors weighted by their share of WWCM workers) have grown by 2.8% a year. A little difference but, when compounded over 27 years, the disparity in wage levels between all workers and WWCM has widened from a mean of 3.7% in 1990-92 to 6.9% over the previous two years. !

Compiling these three indexes in a equally weighted index supplies a month-to-month indicator of Mr Trump’s performance in the WWCM labour market (see graph 2). The index has demonstrated deterioration in the last several years. Could Fred Trump’s son make a difference?


February 9, 2017